News
Wealth Pi Fortnightly Economic Snapshot
Interest Rates
Probability of rate decrease at next RBA meeting in September 2024 is at 50% for 25bp.
RBA
Inflation remains above target, with June quarter figures at 3.8% (headline) and 3.9% (trimmed mean). The return to the 2–3% target is now expected by late 2025, slightly delayed due to stronger domestic demand and limited supply capacity. The Reserve Bank held the cash rate steady (4.35%), prioritizing inflation control amid economic uncertainties.
Australian Markets
In June 2024, new home loans in Australia rose by 1.3% to $29.2 billion. Owner-occupier loans increased by 0.5% to $18.2 billion, and investor loans grew by 2.7% to $11.0 billion, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Global Markets
US:
The latest Realtor.com report identifies the ten most popular housing markets in the U.S. based on online traffic, with Columbus, OH, Knoxville, TN, and Pittsburgh, PA topping the list due to their affordability and growing interest from homebuyers nationwide. The report highlights that while larger metros like New York and Dallas attract significant interest due to their size, mid-sized markets like Knoxville and Pittsburgh are gaining traction due to their balanced lifestyle offerings and affordability. Additionally, the report notes that increased views per property in these regions indicate strong buyer demand despite varying market sizes.
UK:
The Zoopla House Price Index for July 2024 reports that UK house prices have remained flat over the past year but are expected to rise by up to 2% by the end of 2024. The housing market shows increased activity and supply, with the average house price at £265,600 in June 2024. Buyers are now paying a higher proportion of the asking price, and sales agreed are up 16% year-on-year. Affordability remains a constraint, particularly in southern England, despite more balanced market conditions.
Property
In the past three months, home values fell in Melbourne (-0.9%), Hobart (-0.8%), and Darwin (-0.3%), indicating a slowing housing market despite national values rising by 0.5% in July. Meanwhile, Perth and Adelaide saw notable growth, with values up 6.2% and 5.0% respectively. The market faces challenges like declining borrowing capacity and affordability pressures.
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